Search

The two events have no direct relationship

The Dreamliner is decidedly bad dream for Boeing. Two days after the report of the first flight, due to structural weaknesses in the join of the wings, the largest customer of the future long-haul jet, Qantas, cancelled Friday a 15 B787 order and delayed the delivery of 15 additional copies. The two events have no direct relationship. As noted by the Australian company, its decision will enable him to save $ 3 billion and it had been taken prior to the announcement of this sixth delay. But it darkens the table. The latest addition to Boeing, which had accumulated a number of commands without precedent for a plane having not yet stolen (up to 866), is now less enviable record of cancellations holder: more than 70 since the beginning of the year. And if he keeps an advance on its competitor, the Airbus A350, the gap continues to shrink both in terms of orders to date of the entry into service.

As indicated by Boeing, it must still wait "several weeks" for the new calendar of the Dreamliner, already in delay of two years on his original agenda. But, in all likelihood, the first deliveries will not start in the first quarter of 2010. Morgan Stanley estimated that they could be pushed back to 2011. Either one year before the first flight of the A350.

Overweight by about 4

The most optimistic scenario would be a new period of three months at least. Before advancing a new date, Boeing must indeed design needed reinforcements, repairs and redo all the static resistance tests. After which, should still play tight since the manufacturer hopes to certify its apparatus in only nine months. As a comparison, Airbus is given more than a year for the A350.

In addition to the uncertainties associated with highly innovative technological choices the 787 is the first aircraft in plastic , this period will allow to know the actual performance of the aircraft. However the first copies appear heavier than expected and therefore less efficient fuel and with a radius of action or a capacity lower than the commitments. Unconfirmed are overweight by about 4, which would make the first versions (787-800) uncompetitive compared to the A350 on the long road. This is what could explain the decision by Qantas. The company and its wholly-owned low-cost Jetstar will indeed to competitors on their long-haul lines equipped companies mostly A350, as Emirates, Qatar Airways, and AirAsia.

Finally, closer once the test of certification, the manufacturer must pass another bet: the rising rate of production to the expected level of 10 copies per month in 2012. It is at this stage of industrialization that A380 has accumulated more than two years of delay. But the American aircraft manufacturer will have even less right to the error that, at a rate of 10 units per month, some 840 current commands does will be not passed before the end of the next decade.

In order to serve new customers and do not wait too long existing customers, Boeing will therefore very probably construct a second string Assembly, with what this entails additional costs and problems. What start even more profitability from the first years of the program, in addition to the incremental costs of development and the penalties for delay, ahead monumental.